The Strait of Hormuz, world’s busiest oil chokepoint, was moving again. Now, it’s at risk of clogging up once more.Earlier this week, ship traffic through the passage surged to a three-month high, before slowing sharply on Friday after a fresh attack in the Gulf of Oman brought an international evacuation effort to a halt. MarineTraffic data showed that 73 vessels passed through the strategic waterway on Wednesday, more than double Tuesday’s traffic and the highest since shortly after the conflict with Iran began in late February.The increase came after the United States lifted sanctions on Iranian oil earlier this week under a ceasefire agreement between the two countries. Around the same time, the United Nations and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) also launched a humanitarian operation to evacuate 11,000 stranded seafarers along with about 500 vessels from the region.“What we’re seeing are the ships that were sitting in the Gulf for this elongated period of time starting to move out with a focus on humanitarian aid to get the seafarers out and then a couple of chosen tankers when sanctions were lifted,” Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, told CNN.Before the conflict disrupted shipping, between 110 and 160 vessels travelled through the passage between Iran and Oman every day, according to expert estimates. Since the fighting began, average daily traffic through the 21-mile waterway has remained below 10 vessels.Confidence had started returning over the weekend as shipping firms responded to signs of progress in talks between the US and Iran. On Wednesday, the IMO, Iran and Oman introduced two designated shipping routes: one along the northern side of the strait near Iran and another along the southern side closer to Oman, that were considered safe from mines and other threats. Ships were contacted directly by the relevant agencies when it was their turn to move, CNN reported.
Traffic drops after attacks
The plan was intended to clear vessels from the region in a controlled and phased manner. That effort, however, was halted on Thursday after a vessel came under attack in the Gulf of Oman. A US official told CNN the ship had been struck in an Iranian drone attack but that the country has not claimed responsibility. Traffic through the strait fell by roughly half on Friday after Iran warned that ships should not sail along the Omani coast, saying safe passage would only be provided through routes declared to Iran. The warning heightened concerns about possible future attacks on vessels entering or leaving the strait near Oman.Explaining the decision to suspend the operation, IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez said he had taken the precaution despite the attacked vessel having “did not transit under IMO’s evacuation framework.”
Risks remain high
Shipping companies have spent months weighing the risks of operating in the area, where mine threats and missile attacks have complicated commercial movements. According to the IMO, there have been at least 46 strikes on vessels and 14 deaths so far.The conflict has also affected insurance cover, with some insurers withdrawing protection under wartime clauses. Several major shipping companies, including Hapag-Lloyd, have relied on US naval guidance while navigating the strait, although that support has not always been available.“The ships actually transiting Hormuz this week are still mostly Iranian-flagged and some (Taiwanese) Evergreen ships. The major global carriers haven’t returned yet, so it’s closer to status quo than a real shift,” said Sanne Manders, president of Flexport, a global shipping logistics company.Both Manders and Seroka expect vessel movements to remain subdued while the IMO’s evacuation programme stays on hold.The IMO now plans to “reconfirm that the necessary safety guarantees continue to be in place for the ships on our evacuation list and all those in the region,” Dominguez said.
