Leading Latino political strategists are examining the races where Latinos could play an outsize role in this year’s midterm elections, and believe their votes will be critical in a number of House races.
“The House map especially is very Latino,” said Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, a political data firm that specializes in Latino voters. He went on to tick off a list of competitive districts across the midterm landscape, with a high population of Hispanic voters, that could determine who wins the majority in Congress.
At Tuesday’s Latino Vote Summit in Washington, D.C., Latino political strategists, pollsters and campaign operatives from both sides of the aisle gathered to discuss cost-of-living issues and Latino political power heading into the fall. The backdrop is Latino voters’ swing toward President Trump in 2024 — and Democrats’ efforts to win them back during a tightly contested race for control of the House and Senate.
Odio said the high-stakes Senate race in Texas between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton could be heavily influenced by the state’s Latino voters, who supported Mr. Trump with a 55% majority in the 2024 election, according to CBS News exit polls. Since then, recent polls show that many Texas Hispanics have swung away from Republicans.
“Texas’ map, in particular, is a place where, where Latinos land could be the difference between Republicans netting four [Senate] seats and Democrats walking away either even or walking away with one Democratic seat,” Odio said.
Roughly one in four registered voters in Texas in 2024 were Latino, according to data compiled by UnidosUS, the nation’s largest Latino civil rights and advocacy organization. That percentage is even higher in some of the state’s most competitive House districts.
Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla of California noted at the event that the Latino population is also rapidly growing in places like Georgia, North Carolina and Louisiana — where higher voter turnout from that critical electorate could have a significant impact in frontline congressional races.
“Georgia, the biggest battleground state on the Senate map right now, more than a million Latinos in Georgia, that’s a surprise to us,” Padilla said, referring to a key Senate battleground race where Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is seeking reelection. “Look at North Carolina’s growing Latino population. Look at Louisiana, you wouldn’t think big numbers, but New Orleans now has a Latina mayor.”
“We’re everywhere where there’s work. We’re there, and we’re growing in numbers, and we’re growing in impact, and if we collectively do our job right and put together on this, then the political impact of our community will only continue to be louder and stronger, and force the political forces of this nation’s capital to pay attention and to address it,” Padilla said.
With fewer than five months until the elections, the main issue for Latinos continues to be affordability, according to participants from across the country, including California and Texas, who spoke to CBS News.
“The economy, and the economy, and the economy,” said Odio, when asked about the top issue for Hispanics.
He said recent data suggests Democrats may be regaining some of the ground they lost with Latino voters over the past several election cycles, though he’s not sure how much.
Several experts said economic anxiety is driving Hispanic voter engagement in much the same way it did in 2018, when Democrats benefited from a “blue wave” election and gained more than 40 seats in the House.
By comparison, in 2022, Republicans picked up a handful of seats and narrowly won control of the House, and although Democrats staved off a large-scale GOP wave, Latino voters trended away from Democrats that year. By 2024, almost half of Hispanics voted for Mr. Trump, including a majority of Hispanic men, according to exit polling data.
“It does suggest that you’re headed not quite to 2018, but it’s getting closer to that vicinity,” Odio said of engagement by Latino voters. “That means Democrats should recover a lot of the support they’ve lost. But whether they end up closer to a 2022 scenario or a 2018 scenario is really important, because a lot of elections will be decided by the difference between those two margins.”
Latino voters continue to view economic conditions, like inflation, as their top concern — and Mr. Trump’s ratings on his handling of the economy are weaker than they were at about the same point in 2018, Odio said.
But Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego of Arizona, who won his competitive Senate race in a battleground state that Mr. Trump won, said Hispanic voters cannot be taken for granted by the Democratic Party.
“The Democratic Party still does not understand that there is no national Democratic Party without the Latino vote being part of that coalition, and part of that is that you have to answer to where the Latino voter is, not where you want the Latino voter to be,” Gallego said.
“There has been this want by special, very liberal organizations and very liberal donors and very liberal groups that they want Latinos to be liberal, and the fact is not all of them are,” Gallego said.
Looking beyond the midterms to 2028, Gallego fielded a question about potential GOP presidential contenders.
“If Marco Rubio is the nominee to be president of the United States, we’re in trouble,” he said, referring to Mr. Trump’s Cuban American secretary of state. “You’re playing with a lot less territory if Rubio is on the ticket, not because his policies are going to be great — we’re going to hit him on everything we can — obviously, about how bad he is on that — but there is some voter out there without a doubt that’s just going to be excited about having the first Latino candidate running for president on a major ticket.”
Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant with an expertise in Hispanic voting trends and behavior, agrees with Gallego.
“The Republican Party is much stronger with Latinos than people realize,” Madrid, who has been a critic of the Trump administration, told CBS News. “Having somebody like Marco Rubio, I think, is a huge asset, huge advantage for the Republicans.”
Madrid added that if Republicans perform poorly in states with large Latino populations like Georgia or North Carolina in the upcoming midterms, a Latino candidate in 2028 could keep more states in play.
“I think when they lose the House and potentially the Senate, [Republicans] are going to be looking at the 270 map and saying, ‘who can win this,'” Madrid said. “Having a Latino candidate is going to bring those back into contention and I think Marco Rubio emerges as one of their best advantages, and to hear Senator Gallego acknowledge that says something.”
